Equatorial Thoughts

First lap behind, we are at the equator, comrades! What is customary to do at the equator? Sailors, crossing this parallel for the first time, drink sea water. I'm an old sailor, that's why I'm entitled to other drinks, among them - truth serum. Now I’ll take a sip and write everything as it is about reality and expectations.

I think, reality reflects expectations 100% or so. Confident first place, one defeat, which can be attributed to... yes, anything can be attributed to. If the championship leader loses one match, it's good for everyone, including him. Zenit plays as an ensemble, where everyone has a rehearsed role, Conductor Christenson keeps high-class performers on notes. As a result, these guys hardly fake it, playing at least the classics, at least jazz.

Second place - 100% expectations and even, can, a little more. The progress of Belgorod residents is powerful. But by the end of the round the quality of the game dropped a little. Lost to Lokomotiv at home, the loss of Zhang – and a return to the problems of two years ago, when, without a second powerful finisher in pair with the technical Tetyukhin, the puzzle didn’t fit. The main thing is to “catch” this subsidence, find a solution and move on.

95% minimum. At the beginning of the season, Konstantinov said, that Loko is “sitting in the bushes with a grenade” and is generally an “outsider”. maybe, covered with straw, but the fact is, what's in each line, with the exception of centrals and liberos, has its rough edges. Kurbanov is unstable in the final game, Leal is not ready for 100%, Ivovic hasn't impressed in recent games. There are nuances to a greater extent with ligaments and to a lesser extent in the diagonal, although I am sincerely happy for Rajab. So third place “out of the bushes” is quite a result, based on that, what is. But there is also unrealized potential.

Muscovites don’t seem to suit a place outside the top three, but only one defeat separates you from second place. So percent on 90% reality matches expectations. With the arrival of Sapozhkov, variability appeared in the diagonal, which finally turned Dynamo into a team without weak points. It's just a matter of concentration, readiness, quality of the game. Almost the entire starting six has the potential to decide the fate of matches with just one serve, but often in reality this results in massive losses, which have to be compensated in other elements. Good luck in "Dinamo", as they say, there is something to cover.

Implementation of sensual ideas on 100%. In fact, only the defeat of Gazprom-Yugra evokes slight associations with last season, the rest of the defeats are only from the tops. Year after year we watched, how combat personnel are formed in Ufa, which by the end of the season turned into a pumpkin. Now the situation is radically different, the team plays to its potential and even a little more. The intrigue is, will the Ufa residents be able to maintain the gained altitude?, because they are seriously supporting from below.

Dynamo-Ural is supported primarily by the team of Vladimir Alekno. I think, expectations are justified by the first round of interest on 50%, not more. At the start, the team experienced the whole range of traditional problems, from injuries to decreased gaming motivation. But gradually Zenit is freeing itself from that, and from another, reaching the level, which corresponds to the set of names in the protocol. I think, this is the main contender for a place in the top five and above.

Novy Urengoy opens the list from a dense group of so-called “middle peasants”. The result of the first round in the team, I guess, satisfied percent 65%. That is, I would like it higher, but that's not bad either. "Torch" performed unevenly, alternating defeat from MSTU with victory over Kazan. The Yamal players played five sets each with their direct competitors, which once again illustrates the density of competition in this part of the standings. The team's main asset is young, ambitious players, Volkov generation change, Gossip, Yakovlev and Bogdan. They would also like Babkevich and Dineikin, but then the conversation would be different.

55% satisfaction with the current state of affairs. The composition allows the Sosnovoborsk team to push the leaders, but in fact only the bottom part of the table was beaten, and with a certain effort (tiebreakers with ASK and MSTU). Injuries have not spared the team, but this is a common problem, and rotation theoretically allows Dynamo-LO not to reduce the level of play to a critical minimum. In practice, something is missing, some kind of fairy dust, which was before.

At the beginning of the season they said, that “Yenisey” is right behind the leaders, in fact, the Krasnoyarsk team split with the Super League fifty-fifty in the first round, like the two higher commands. I think, this is 60% from the club's ambitions. Strong, Working team, but if Murashko stops being a monster, if Bocharov falls out due to injury, the holes show through. Smeared them, "Yenisey" can compete at the promised level.

Team-validol, which confirmed, in particular, match with Belogorye in the 15th round. "Kuzbass" arranges thrillers both with the tops, same with underdogs, the quality of the game varies, How is the blood pressure of loyal fans?. Tenth place on the team, I think, satisfied percent 40% - and then only as a launching pad for exploits in the second round. Without them, exploits, it will be very sad, since the potential of the team is not inferior to the same Ufa.

I have to admit, that the “middle peasants” end with us and the teams begin, fighting for survival. The potential is too different, therefore, Gazprom-Yugra’s current 11th place is fully in line with expectations, 100%. The Surgut team won their games, and even “hooked” “Dynamo-Ural”. Breaking into the top ten would be a miracle, pride does not allow me to fall below 12th position. So this is where we belong, blood and sweat (Let's remember all the crazy comebacks) conquered.

But Nova’s ambitions were probably somewhere in the top ten. The club relied on experience, clung to “Yenisei” and “Kuzbass”, but let me down, as far as I understand, physics - the other side of experience. In the second round, the Volga team will probably make an attempt to fix something, for now - percent 65% from expected.

Orenburg has a good team, new sponsor, addition to the squad. The victory over Kuzbass is in the bag, a set chewed out by youth in Kazan, and in Surgut everything could have turned out differently, if not for our crazy comeback in the fifth set. I think, what's the percent on 70% We are satisfied with the current state of affairs in the team.

For student debutants, the equator is time, when should your record book start working for you?. But no, because the team was feverish throughout the first round. maybe, this is the body's reaction to a new environment, adaptation period. It’s just that some stability has begun to emerge among Muscovites, As soon as the nerves of St. Petersburg “Zenith” were frayed, a wave of changes of horses immediately began at the crossing. hope, that the correct formula on the site will still be fixed, turnover in the lineup during the season is not the best help in achieving results. One thing is for sure: Now MSTU is noticeably stronger, than at the start, and for this 80% from expectations.

At first they laughed at the injuries in Nizhny, then they cried, it's not very clear now, what to do. The main setter was thrown out twice, which is still not on the site, players took turns going on sick leave, treated diagonal, Today one of the two living centers has problems. And then Concepcion unhooked. At the same time, Nizhny Novgorod residents are squeezing everything out of themselves, what can, and resist rivals and fate with dignity. There's not much to be happy about here, 100%, that the team did not want to find itself at the bottom of the standings again. But for character - a plus 50%. They'll still fight.

For the championship as a whole, there are clearly three groups of teams, classic leaders, middle peasants, outsiders. I would include Kazan as the first, "Dynamo", Lokomotiv is the continuation of this test and so far the most formidable, St. Petersburg and Belogorye - they will line up at the head of the table following the results of the preliminary stage of the championship in one order or another. This is my forecast.

Average people: "Dynamo-Ural", "Torch", "Dinamo-LO", "Kuzbass", Yenisei. There will also be a tight fight for 6-10 seats. Well, below Surgut will fight for survival, «New», Orenburg, MSTU and ASK.

Conspicuous, that in the current championship there are not many unpredictable results. Mostly teams beat those, who are lower in the standings and lose to those, who is taller. From the sudden: defeat of "Zenit-Kazan" to "Fakel", victories of “Ural” and “Kuzbass” over St. Petersburg, Fakel's loss to MSTU, victory of Gazprom-Ugra over Dynamo-Ural and Orenburg over Kuzbass. Only six matches played 105, that is 6,3%. Not enough. I do not take into account the games of Dynamo with Zenit St. Petersburg and Lokomotiv with Belogorye - the opponents there are potentially equal.

Conclusion: the process of championship stratification is already calculated mathematically. Тревожная тенденция – чем ниже уровень конкуренции, тем ниже качество волейбола. Ahead, of course, еще второй круг и плей-офф, но предварительно – российский чемпионат все явственнее распадается на отдельные «этажи». Причины этому, rather, экономические, нежели волейбольные. Играем в тот волейбол, который можем себе позволить.